How Professionals Make Decisions by Henry Montgomery, Raanan Lipshitz, Berndt Brehmer

By Henry Montgomery, Raanan Lipshitz, Berndt Brehmer

This quantity is the fruit of the fifth convention on Naturalistic determination Making which all for the significance of learning those that have a point of workmanship within the area during which they make judgements. The sizeable matters pertain to how contributors and teams make judgements in expert and organizational settings, and to improve compatible tools for learning those questions conscientiously. This quantity appeals to practitioners in company and govt, in addition to lecturers and scholars who're attracted to naturalistic choice making.

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Note that this cannot be simply explained as an expectancy effect be­ cause performance degradation was in spite of commanders' expectations that performance with reliable information (more) would be superior. Participants' reports of their experiences of the two experimental condi­ tions suggests (a) a felt pressure to work harder to take into account the more reliable information together with (b) a sense of relief when the infor­ mation was known to be unreliable, providing an "excuse" not to have to work so hard.

Nickerson, R. (1996). Ambiguities and unstated assumptions in probabilistic reasoning. Psycho­ logical Bulletin, 120, 410-433. Pearl, J. (2000). Causality: Models, reasoning and reference. Cambridge, England: Cambridge Uni­ versity Press. , & Hastie, R. (1993). A theory of explanation-based decision making. In G. A. Klein, A. J. Orasanu, R. Calderwood, & C. E. ), Decision making in action: Models and methods (pp. 188-201). Norwood, NJ: Ablex. Perrow, C. (1984). Normal accidents: Living with high-risk technologies.

1996). Fuzzy logic = computing with words. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 4, 103-111. ": A Bias Toward Overuse of Resources in Naturalistic Decision-Making Settings Mary M. Omodei Jim McLennan Glenn C. Elliott La Trobe University, Melbourne Alexander J. Wearing Julia M. , Cardinal, 1998; Seal, 1998). There is general acknowledgment that there are limits to how much of any such resources a commander can effectively process under the time pressure that character­ izes a typical military engagement or emergency incident.

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