China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and by CMR of Xiamen University

By CMR of Xiamen University

This ebook is a quarterly forecast and research document at the chinese language financial system. it really is released two times a 12 months and provides ongoing consequence from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a examine venture on the heart for Macroeconomic learn (CMR) at Xiamen collage. in accordance with the CQMM version, the learn workforce forecast significant macroeconomic signs for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas alternate. whilst it makes a speciality of simulation of present macroeconomic rules in China. as well as supporting readers comprehend China’s fiscal development and coverage consultant, this booklet has 3 major ambitions: to assist readers comprehend China’s fiscal functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic signs for the subsequent eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

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Extra info for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2014

Example text

1 Export, Import, and Foreign Exchange Reserve Growth The Model predicts that in 2014, due to the accelerating recovery of the US economy and the alleviation of uncertainty of economies of the Euro-zone, China’s import and export growths will restore. 97 percentage points over the previous year. 1). 93 % in the fourth quarter. 59 % in the fourth quarter. 75 % in 2014. In 2015, the external demand is expected to be stable. 1, Fig. 6). 57 % over precious year (Fig. 7). In 2015, affected by a new round of urbanization, urban investment demand will further increase.

If the economic growth rate target is higher than the potential economic growth rate, the macroeconomic costs may be greater than the benefits. 5 % using micro-stimulus policies, but the marginal effect of micro-stimulus policies is diminishing. For each year, there existed a cyclical economic growth pattern: “decline—micro-stimulus—rebound—decline”, and the length of the each cycle is becoming short year after year. And for each year, the starting time of micro-stimulus policies had to be shifted to an earlier time.

82 percentage points (Fig. 4). 5 2012 2013 baseline scenario Fig. 09 percentage points respectively. Overall, owing to investment decline, gross demand structure would have thus been slightly adjusted (Figs. 7). Fourth, in terms of employment, the downward adjustment of economic growth rate would not have brought a sharp decline to the growth rate of job creation in 2012 and 2013. 19 percentage points respectively compared to baseline, which it’s too tiny to affect the stability of the overall employment market (Fig.

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